update

for once I have a good reason for falling off the face of the earth. Really. Unfortunately since it deals with someone close to me, I’m not going to post it. Hopefully after today things will get better and I’ll be back on a normal schedule.

mid east, looking west

This business with Syria is disconcerting. Any idea what the going odds are as to if they’ll be “upgraded” into the Axis of Evil (to replace Iraq of course). What’s scary is the question of whether or not the administration could ride the wave of Pro Iraqi War support and convert it into a drive to attack Syria. Or perhaps this is just a case of the news networks trying to play up hostilities in hopes of not losing the audiences that have been glued to them. These days it’s impossible to tell how the message is being manipulated or who’s even doing it.

And it the mean time everything is fine and dandy in, Afghanistan, good thing the press is giving that so much attention.

hello michelle, it’s grandma

In other news, I have been receiving phone messages at work from a woman that only identifies herself as “Grandma.” Apparently she’s trying to reach someone named “Michelle.” Strangely, the fact that my voicemail message clearly states “You’ve reached Matt Bernius’ voicemail” doesn’t seem to phase her. I’ve been getting at least one message a day from this mysterious voice. Today she called to see if “Mom and Dad got home OK.” Perhaps, one day, I’ll get the chance to talk directly to her. But until then I always look forward to my daily communiqué.

toppling

I do need to mention that it was awe inspiring to watch the footage from Iraq yesterday. The toppling of the statue of Saddam and the mass celebrations in the street. And for all of my curmudging yesterday, good can come of the situation. But it’s important for everyone to understand that there is a long road ahead and a lot of work that needs to be done.

thoughts on war and peace

I guess I should begin with “please take my opinions with a grain of salt.” I’m no expert on this, but I think that we’ve been lulled into a false sense of security about this entire war. While there have been casualties, I don’t think anyone with any sense of reality doubted the outcome of this. The world’s most advanced military versus a third world nation (well armed, but still third world with everything that goes along with that). The bigger question is what comes next. That’s something I just don’t hear enough discussion of.

We’re going to occupy Iraq for a while. Take note that unlike in Afghanistan there is no “Iraqi Government in Exile.” In fact there have been no public discussions of what a new Iraqi government would be comprised of. There is no Hamid Karzai waiting in the wings. This isn’t an oversight. The fact is, like it or not, we’re going to be running the country for a while. Which in some ways might bode well. In the case of Japan we were able to do a lot of good in helping the nation rebuild. However, in the case of Japan, we installed a democratic government. But with no government waiting in the wings and no post war plans mentioned, it has to be assumed that we are going to be the running Iraq with an occupational force. And that is something that is going to take some getting used to.

Even in a best case scenario, where an intern government is quickly established, there will need to be a strong US presence (read US Military), as I don’t expect that an Iraqi Military will be immediately established (think about how long it took for Japan to reestablish an Army… and we still have a Military presence there). After all this work, there is no desire to have the next government be as hostile to us as the past regime. Additionally, only the most myopic individuals don’t see that one of the Bush Administrations long-term goals is to establish a centralized US military presence in the Middle East (in the hopes of having a stabilizing effect in the region).

In the past our occupations have come with a cost. While an oppressed people may be thankful for being liberated, there will always be elements that perceive that they have traded one set of masters for another. During our occupation of the Philippine Islands significant numbers of US Marines were assassinated underground soldiers who opposed the occupation. In fact the term “Leatherneck” came from the thick leather straps that Marines eventually began to wear around their necks in the Philippines to prevent getting stabbed while in urban areas. That is a scenario that has played out time and time again in Colonial occupations.

Historically, Westerner’s have had a very hard time holding onto any areas of the Middle East (see The Roman Empire, The Crusades, Colonial Occupation). We should be prepared for a second, “unofficial war” to begin after the first ends. It will be interesting to see how much coverage the occupation will receive (the US Media already seems to have forgotten about the significant numbers of US troops still stationed in Afghanistan. Also it’s interesting that no one is talking about all the Afghanis still being held in Cuba). Will it be enough to drive us out of the country? Probably not. But historically speaking, there is a good chance that a lot of American Troops are going to be hurt and killed in the weeks and months to come. That’s not considering what effect our presence will have in the Region in the months and years to come. Perhaps the Administration’s plans will go like clock work. However, it’s important to note that past American involvements in regime change have often had unforeseen consequences (most recently see both post Soviet Afghanistan [even Rambo wasn’t able to help that] and the previous Iraqi Government… Sadam has a great pair of Gold Spurs given to him by Ronald Regan for his support of the US at the time) For better or for worse, we should get used to Iraq, because we’re going to be there for at least a generation.

SUCK!

Is what blogger does. It lost my last post and it wasn’t available when ever I tried to post yesterday! Grrr!

living in a crispy cream glazed world

Rochester has been hit by an ice storm. This morning I needed to break through a layer of ice to get into my car. There are downed trees and powerlines all over the place. However, this doesn’t even compare to the Great Ice Storm of 1991. That one apparently decimated the region. Folks were without power for over a week in most places as Julia can attest to. So this really isn’t anything to complain about.

In other news, men from the future are here and investing!

lists

I have no right to be any where near as tired as I’ve been for the last few days. I just don’t seem to have any energy. Or focus for that matter. One the plus side, I’ve been getting a lot of things accomplished at work. And outside of work for that matter. I attribute both of those successes to maintaining lists. I’ve gotten to the point where I carry two small spiral bound notebooks with me at all times. One’s for work “to-do’s”, the other for personal ones. And I’ve managed to knock a lot of stuff off those lists.

Unfortunately, this accomplishing of goals has led to rather dry blog posts. In fact my brother Glenn has heckled me about this recently. So I do promise that I’m going to try to be more interesting in the days and weeks to come. On the other hand I’ve consistantly updated both blogs on time and one schedule, so that has to be worth something.

snow

It’s sunny and warm here in Rochester… April Fools!

There’s snow on the ground. And more was coming down this morning. While there isn’t a lot, we hit whiteout conditions a couple of times yesterday. And all this leads me to wonder, as I often do, what fundimental argument God had with the areas founding fathers? And was it really so bad that he had to damn the entire region out right?